I just finished reading a post on Mashable by Mark “Rizzn” Hopkins, about the future of blogging, “Blogging is Dead; Long Live Blogging.

As a print publisher for 15+ years, the future of information dissemination has been a hot topic of mine for some time.  Focused primarily on the future dissemination of information.  Let’s take a look at history to gain perspective on where we’re at, and potentially where we are going.

15 years ago if you wanted to get into publishing, it was an expensive process.  One that was ultimately dictated by large corporations as they had the means to find and pay for circulation, printing, postage, overhead, etc.  People were by and large expendable, and as the saying goes, “no one is irreplaceable”.  Mostly true in those days.  Information, whether distributed via printed word, radio or video broadcast/cable, was left for the elite with large bank rolls.  Even when desktop publishing came along and many wondered if anyone and everyone could be a publisher, the rank and file still could not break the stronghold corporate media had, and still largely has on the population today.

Fast forward to today and Web 2.0.  (As Mark eloquently states, “the rounded corners and the Internet as a platform” Web 2.0.) Today print publishing is dying on the vine - and fast.  I know, as I was a casualty of both print and Cable.  One of the magazines I ran was called CableWorld which closed it’s doors today.  By every facet, it was a great magazine, but likely a victim of today’s Web 2.0.  I was lucky enough to be instrumental in launching Cable360.net with great success.  Information is delivered not just twice weekly, but up to the minute.  Cable programmers could, and do, advertise their programming to the big cable companies with video at 30 frames per second, instead of static print ads.  Print simply can’t compete.  Not to mention the fact that marketing budgets - which are always getting smaller and not larger, are always last minute decisions - are better suited for online.  Oh yeah, and for some crazy reason, we print people trained advertisers that web advertising should be cheaper than print!  Many of us (I do not include myself here) gave away web advertising in the early days as an “add on” so we didn’t jeopardize the big print ad. Don’t get me started there.....  Another article on that to come. 

Where was I....Ah yes, take a look at the Cable industry.  Competition is coming from all angles.  Not only from the telcos, but the real competitor is the Internet.  You know that because your reading this.  By and large the Cable companies are just waking up to this fact.  So CableWorld may have been doomed by the Internet in a perfect storm of Web 2.0.  But where is Web 2.0 going?

More after the jump…

Technology has advanced to the point where YouTube is ubiquitous.  There are thousands of YouTube clones, and vertical knock-offs launching every day.  Anyone with a video camera and something to say now has a channel.  Some are even interesting!  Cable has competition.  BIG TIME.  As this isn’t an article about Cable, I’ll get back to my point, which is about Web 2.0 and it’s future numbered revisions.

Blogging has taken on a life of it’s own.  From the “I’m stuck in traffic” entries, to the every day facets of life that just aren’t interesting.  I still yearn to read something worthwhile from someone I respect, or that makes me think.  I believe Web 3.0 is likely to use technology to a greater degree than even today, but perhaps Web 4.0 - there might be a realization that many people documenting their lives is not good for the masses, it’s good for family trees.  It’s today’s diary.  I’d love to look back and review highlights of my life, (some parts at least), and share them with my children.  But do I care if I was stuck in traffic on Wed. December 8th 2006?  Nope.  If I don’t care, who will.  No one of course.  Without giving up too much, and I have already, I feel the future of the web is self regulating.  Here’s my vision:

Bloggers will separate into distinct groups:
Type A) the multimedia diary made possible by iLife for friends and family.  Not that there’s anything wrong with that, just keep it interesting enough that you care to read it yourself in a week. 

Type B) the blogger who thinks that blogging daily on (insert your blog here), will be their multi-million dollar ticket to retirement will realize it just isn’t happening.  Instead, most will whither and cease to exist, while some will combine and combat Type C and Type D in stronger numbers. 

Type C) got an early start or managed a unique selling point that has already given them significant success in traffic/ad revenue.  These are the folks that likely worked in publishing and realized: “Hey, it doesn’t take a printing press, postage and a large building on Broadway to publish great works of art, be they video, audio or printed word.  The vehicle doesn’t ultimately matter, if I have a name in my field, I can monetize it. 

Type D) is the large media corporation that was smart enough to survive Web 2.0 and 3.0.  They paired down overhead.  They reacted quickly, and realized people are the key ingredient.  They are also likely heavily funded and can take losses.  Type B better circle the wagons - it’s their only hope…

In the end, there will continue to be lots of bloggers plotting out their daily lives, and many more perhaps that have lots of great things to say on important topics - but perhaps they aren’t driven by money or advertising.  Just the ability to have a voice that people actually read.  For those trying to monetize Web 2.0, 3.0 and beyond, that type is the biggest threat of all, and perhaps the best read.